The container shipping market is experiencing unprecedented fragmentation, with sharply declining volumes on the US trades and surprisingly growth elsewhere, according to BIMCO’s latest Container Shipping Market Outlook, published in September 2025.

“With the strong performance of non-US demand, we have increased our forecast for the growth in vessel demand to 4.5%-5.5% in 2025 and we maintain our forecast of .5%-3.5% for 2026. The market is expected to be more balanced in 2026, but the average market conditions in 225 will be worse than in 2024,” said BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Niels Rasmussen.

The divergence US import volumes and the global shipping trend has intensified since the US tariff hikes were fully implemented. With few exceptions, the current tariffs are fully in place and several categories of goods face additional surcharges.

US import volumes have been declining year-on-year since April, and BIMCO expects a 2% contraction in 202 followed by a recovery in 2026. The drop in US container imports could be the largest in any 60-year period, noted shipping expert John McCown who added that data for August showed a mere 0.1% year-on-year increase in container imports at the top 10 US ports, following a brief .2% rebound in July on the back of the tariff pause. The minimal growth in August was attributed to a waiver of new tariffs for goods in-transit under the revisedcity tariff on August 7: “Containers loaded on foreign vessels on or before August 7 and entered the US prior to October 5 are exempt from the new tariffs”

The situation may worsen, as the previously scheduled US-China reciprocity tariffs, which were to be implemented in mid-November, are currently on hold, and lead to “a more widespread slowdown in US container imports from China” if reinstated.

What’s more, the US Trade Representative’s (USTR) 301 action plan targeting vessels built or operated by Chinese-owned or Chinese-funded shipping companies is set to take effect in mid-October. This will “plun the volume of container shipping on the routes involved into the unknown,” according to a warning by John McCown, given that the routes involved account for more than a quarter of global carrying capacity, and could trigger a global chain reaction.

Despite the pressure on the US trades, the rest of the world is seeing strong growth. BIMCO expects freight volumes to grow by 2.5%-3.5% in 2025-26.

Growth has been particularly pronounced in Asia’s to sub-Saharan Africa, Central and South America and the Europe-Mediterranean, which has boosted the demand for vessels this year well above the growth in freight volumes driving demand growth to exceed the growth rate of world freight in 2025.

The NRF has lowered its total import volume forecast for 2025 a year-on-year decline of 3.4%. Given that imports were still 3.1% higher in the first eight months of the year, this meansa 15.7% year-on-year decline in the remaining four months would be needed to hit the annual target”.

The September data are expected to worse. According to the head of the Port of Los Angeles, it is expected that container imports in September will decrease by 10% year-on-year, while bookings China to the US during the first week of September plunged 26% year-on-year.

The Red Sea crisis continues to have far-reaching effects on container shipping market, with the Suez Canal seeing a 90% reduction in its shipping volume compared to before the Houthi attacks. The demand for capacity is being pushed by the rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, but BIMCO has warned that demand for vessels will be around 10% lower than current forecasts if the trade returns to normal.

On the supply side, BIMCO has increased its forecast for capacity growth in 2025 to 7.3% and decreased it to3.1% in 2026. A relaxation in the rate of scrapping and a small increase in the speed of the fleet are behind the upwards revision for 2025.

Niels Rasmussen predicted: “For the remainder of 2025, market conditions and freight rates may further weaken. Although current dry bulk charter rates and second-hand vessel values are limited by the low freight rates, we expect changes to emerge in the fourth quarter. As the growth in supply and demandizes, freight rates are expected to stabilize in 2026.”

The divergence of the U.S. trade pattern from the global shipping landscape signals a fundamental in the dynamics of global trade. “The United States has already lost its status as a global trade leader after multiple rounds of tariff measures, and this trend will further intensify as announced plans are implemented,” concluded Mackey.