With spot rates on the Asia-Europe trade discounting almost daily, shippers on the fear that a new rate war may have fully erupted.

Earlier in the week, The Loadstar reported that despite the fact that the Asia-Europe tradeAsia-Northern Europe, Asia-Mediterranean) has, in actual fact, taken out some 500,000 teu of planned capacity, the rates have been in freefall for the past three months. Alphaliner calculated that 461 ships would be required to fully meet demand on the 31 Asia-urope routes, but only 425 are currently deployed, from which it concluded that “this clearly indicates a rate war among some of the major carriers.”

This week, the major spot rate indices again posted double-digit price falls.

“It looks as if the rate war has started and we get updated lower rates a daily basis now, so far the blankings and vessel adjustments have done little to curb the rate decline,” a European freight forwarder told The Loadstar.

The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) showed rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam coming in 11% lower than the previous week, finally breaking the $2,00 per feu level for the first time in over a year, to close at $1,910 per feu.

The Shanghai-Gen route saw rates fall by 9% from the previous week to $2,131 per feu.

Average spot rates from Asia to North Europe have by 22.5% since the beginning of September, according to Xeneta, while rates to the Mediterranean have dropped by 14% over the same period.

“The average spot rate to North Europe has dropped far more than to the Mediterranean, but that may change in the coming weeks,” said Peter Sand, Xen’s chief analyst. “The ro/ro average capacity for the week, expected to the Mediterranean by the end of this month, is forecast to increase to 208000 teu, while capacity to North Europe will remain relatively stable. This may lead to a faster rate of decline for the spot rate to the Mediterranean, and a narrow of the gap with rates to North Europe.” He added.

There are indications, however, that the market may see some growth after the post-National Dayull.

“We expect [the rate decline] to continue after the National Day holiday, but I don’t believe that this down trend will last until year, and I expect a rebound and we expect the demand to pick up before year end,” added the forwarder.

Meanwhile, the recent uptick in rates on the transpacific appears to have fizzled out, with carriers’ general rate increases (GRIs) of $1,000-$3,000 feu mid-month having a minimal impact on rates.

The Drewry WCI showed rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles coming in 4% lower than the week to $2,561 per feu, while rates to New York were down 5% to $3,571 per feu.

However, on the latest Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), the transpacific fared far worse, which would suggest a bigger fall in the Drewry W next week, as the index usually lags the SCFI by a few days.

The SCFI showed rates on the Shanghai-West Coast North America basic port coming in 31% lower than the previous week to $1,636 per feu, while Shanghai.

However, one slight difference was that the Xeneta Shipping Index (XSI), which tracks the average contracted rates for the transpacific trade, showed that the average rate remained stable over the past week, while the Freightos-owned FBX rate index showed a slight increase in rates for both transpacific lanes.

Mr Sand, however, does not believe that this situation is sustainable.

“The surprise surge in the spot rates for the transpacific in early September took many by surprise, and we saw another increase in rates in the middle of the month. When everybody was expecting the rates to continue falling, one can’ help but wonder, what has driven the rate hike? If shippers are willing to call the bluff of the carriers, the rate increase in the middle of the month will soonate and the rest of the month will see further decline in the spot rates,” he said.