Recently, Xeneta reported that the average market rate for the trans-Pacific trade from the Far East to the U.S. West Coast has just fallen below the $2,000/FEU mark, hitting its lowest level since late 2023.

Rates have continued to decline since a sharp drop in June, falling by 6% since the end of July. This “moderate” deterioration is the result of carriers’ capacity management and the absence of demand fluctuations caused by tariff uncertainties.

Since late July, rates to the U.S. East Coast have dropped by 12.8% (a decrease of $464/FEU). The South American trade lane saw the largest decline, falling by 18.3% ($1,020/FEU), followed by the Far East to Mediterranean route, which decreased by 8.2% since July 31.

If capacity increases as expected next week, spot rates could decline further unless there is an unexpected surge in demand.

Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, stated: “Shippers have already taken advantage of the initial 90-day window to front-load cargoes. The pent-up demand for moving goods into the U.S. has largely been exhausted, so spot rates are expected to fall further in the coming weeks as capacity grows. The major challenge for carriers is not limited to the U.S. trades. In the next few weeks, capacity will also increase on routes from the Far East to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean, which could place additional downward pressure on spot rates.”

Drewry’s World Container Index Falls for Ninth Consecutive Week

As of August 14, the Drewry World Container Index (WCI) has declined for nine consecutive weeks, reaching $2,350/FEU and showing signs of stabilization after a period of high volatility. The unpredictability began in April when the U.S. announced new tariffs, triggering a sharp spike in freight rates from May to early June. This was followed by a significant decline until mid-July, though the pace of decrease has slowed considerably as the downward trend lost momentum.

Drewry’s container forecasting team expects the supply-demand balance to deteriorate again in the second half of 2025, leading to a contraction in spot rates.

7% of Sailings Canceled on Major Trade Lanes

Amid fluctuating trade flows, tariff adjustments, and route restructuring, carriers’ capacity management through blank sailings is providing only limited support.

Between Week 34 (August 18–24) and Week 38 (September 15–21), 49 out of 724 scheduled sailings on major east-west trade routes have been canceled, representing a cancellation rate of 7%. The majority of these are on eastbound trans-Pacific routes (47%), followed by Asia–North Europe and Mediterranean (31%), and westbound trans-Atlantic (22%).

During this period, 93% of the scheduled weekly sailings are expected to operate as planned.