Markets have finally received news of easing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

As the United States and Iran launch a 60-day negotiation framework, coordination mechanisms for commercial vessel navigation have been rolled out. Many market participants are now discussing a key question: With the strait stabilizing, when will freight rates decline and shipping capacity return to normal?

However, insights from shipowners, analytical institutions and maritime media indicate that the resumption of navigation does not mean an immediate restoration of normal transportation order.

Global shipping is transitioning from a phase of disruption to a gradual recovery cycle.

Main Waterway Partially Reopens Amid Persistent Operational Constraints

According to industry sources cited by The Guardian, the main waterway of the Strait of Hormuz has yet to resume full operational capacity.

Reports note that around 80 naval mines remain to be cleared, with industry insiders projecting that the associated disruptions could persist for months, potentially lasting until the end of the year.

As one of the world’s most critical energy and trade corridors, the Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Under normal circumstances, approximately 130 vessels—including oil tankers, LNG carriers, container ships and regional trading vessels—pass through the strait daily.

Phil Belcher, a senior official at the International Tanker Owners Pollution Federation (Intertanko), described the current situation as akin to “the closure of central lanes on a highway”. Many vessels are forced to take alternative coastal routes, narrowing navigable space and further increasing difficulties in vessel passing, draft control and maritime scheduling.

Richard Meade, Editor-in-Chief of Lloyd’s List, stated that even with improved safety conditions, a full return to pre-disruption shipping throughput in the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely within this year.

A more pressing challenge lies in the lingering impacts of massive vessel backlogs, disrupted cargo flows and restructured shipping networks on the global market.

Industry statistics show that nearly 600 vessels are currently stranded or anchored in the Gulf region awaiting navigation resumption.

Container Market Disruptions Spreading to Global Shipping Networks

While the Strait of Hormuz disruptions have directly impacted oil transportation and regional energy shipping, the container shipping sector is now facing secondary spillover effects.

Data from Norwegian maritime analytics firm Xeneta shows that the turmoil has disrupted around 10% of global container capacity allocation.

Prior to the crisis, 99 container shipping routes operated across or transited the Arabian Gulf, with a nominal total capacity of 3.2 million TEUs, accounting for roughly 10% of the global container fleet.

To date, only 11 routes remain operational—including 10 regional routes and one Iran-China service—with a combined active capacity of merely 74,000 TEUs.

The drop in operational vessels is even more stark. Of the 488 vessels previously serving the region, only 18 continue regular operations, while the remaining 470 have been forced to divert, reallocate routes or exit their original shipping networks.

Though these vessel capacities have not been eliminated, their redistribution across global markets has gradually rippled through international shipping routes.

Freight Rate Hikes Spread Beyond Affected Routes

Xeneta data reveals drastic surges in global spot freight rates. The spot rate for the Far East-US West Coast route jumped from $1,879 per FEU in late February to $5,493 per FEU, representing a 192% increase. Meanwhile, rates for the Far East-Northern Europe route rose 106% from $2,220 per FEU to $4,572 per FEU over the same period.

Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, pointed out that the market is witnessing advanced cargo shipments and aggressive container space booking. Many clients have been notified of tightening Asian export container availability in the coming weeks, with higher premiums required for confirmed cargo loading.

Additionally, the market is pricing in anticipated future adjustments to bunker surcharges.

This explains why freight rate hikes have spread to routes with no direct connection to the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

Phased Recovery Expected for Global Shipping Networks

Xeneta forecasts a three-stage recovery path for the maritime sector.

First, the release of stranded vessels and crew resources.

Second, the restoration of regional feeder services and intra-Arabian Gulf shipping capacity.

Third, the gradual recovery of intercontinental trunk routes connecting Asia with Europe and North America.

Based on current progress, even with advancing negotiations and improving navigation safety, the full recovery of global container networks will take at least three months, with market stabilization expected around mid-September this year.

The resumption of vessel operations does not equate to the full recovery of shipping networks.

For the international logistics industry, the biggest variable ahead will be the new market equilibrium formed by the global reallocation of shipping capacity.

Disclaimer: This article is compiled from public sources and serves only as an industry reference.