The global container shipping industry is bracing for potential market turmoil, with orders for new ships surging to 11.61 million teu, equal to 34.8% of the existing fleet, far outstripping normal fleet renewal demand, according to maritime intelligence company Linerlyt.

The surge has been caused by an unprecedented ordering spree before 2025, when carriers ordered a total of 633 ships with total capacity of5.08 million teu, surpassing the records set in 2021 and 2024. Recent new orders by COSCO Shipping and Hap Lloyd have taken the total orders for this year above the 4.77 million teu of 2024 and the 4.74 million teu of2021.

This aggressive expansion “has raised concerns about a supply glut over the next four years”, Linerlytica said. The key question is projected large new capacity due to be delivered by 2029 can be matched by similar growth in cargo demand.

Despite continued US concerns over China’s ship capabilities, Chinese yards still maintain a dominant position in the newbuilding market. Chinese yards won 497 orders, accounting for 79%, with a total capacity of36.6 million teu, accounting for 72% of the total capacity. South Korean yards, however, won back some market share, with their market share rising 11% in 2024 to 27% in 2025, with 1.35 million new teu.

The remains volatile recently. At the beginning of December, carriers failed to push freight rates up successfully, and launched a new round of rate hikes in mid-December, which had limited effects The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index soared 7.8% in a single Friday, but carriers quickly began to pull back some of the gains.

Record orders, demand growth and intensifying competition among carriers are setting the stage for market turmoil in the years to come, once the new capacity comes into operation.

The key question facing executives analysts in the industry is whether the sector can digest these capacities without triggering a period of depressed rates.