Analysts Warn of Short-Term Boost, Long-Term Headwinds

US importers are rushing to ship goods from China before the current tariff relief window closes, providing a much-needed jolt to global freight demand.

Spot container freight rates on trans-Pacific routes jumped sharply this week as demand surged. According to Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI), the rate for Shanghai–Los Angeles rose 16% week-over-week to USD 3,136 per 40-foot container, while Shanghai–New York soared 19% to USD 4,350.

Shanghai Shipping Exchange data suggests further increases are likely next week, with rates to the US West Coast up 31% and to the East Coast up 22% week-over-week.

Drewry expects spot prices on trans-Pacific routes to continue rising due to tightening capacity.

However, this sudden surge has not impacted Asia–Europe trade, which remains sluggish. Rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam and Genoa both fell 1% last week, to USD 2,035 and USD 2,742 per 40-foot container, respectively.

Shipping giants have announced new FAK (Freight All Kinds) rates effective June 1:

CMA CGM: USD 3,300 to Northern Europe, USD 4,400 to Western Mediterranean

MSC: USD 3,100 all-inclusive to Northern Europe

Yang Ming: USD 3,200 to Northern Europe, USD 5,000 to Mediterranean ports

Citigroup analyst Kaseedit Choonnawat noted that the end of the 90-day tariff pause may coincide with peak shipping season in mid-August, potentially amplifying demand, as China accounts for around 40% of US container imports.

Analysts from HSBC, including Parash Jain, warned that a surge in China-bound shipments could spark port congestion and supply chain bottlenecks, similar to disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Kepler Cheuvreux’s Axel Styrman cautioned that while the shipping rush may raise market expectations, it might not significantly boost Q2 earnings for liners. He sees the rebound as temporary:

“The outlook for H2 2025 remains weak, with demand likely to decline sharply whether tariffs increase or Red Sea rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope ceases.”

Deutsche Bank’s Andy Chu echoed this cautious view, citing structural overcapacity:

“We remain cautious on the long-term outlook for container shipping, though we acknowledge short-term demand momentum on China–US lanes as inventories are replenished.”