According to DHL's "Maritime Market Update" report, published in January 2026 it is expected that from the beginning of 2026 to mid-February during the Chinese New Year period, ocean freight rates will experience a seasonal increase, followed by decline in freight rates until the first half of the year.

Looking at the full year, freight rates are expected to stabilize at the level of the second half of 2025, with the fourth-quarter freight rates already rebounding from the historical low in the third quarter of 2025.

DHL stated: "Fut predict that, barring a geopolitical shock, rates will maintain the end-2025 level in 2026."

In terms of capacity the fleet size is expected to grow by 4% year-on-year, which is lower than the historical average increase of about 6% per year over the past decade

DHL reported that due to the port congestion reaching a two-year high and the continued deviation from the Suez Canal, the actual capacity remains reduced.

The congestion volume at ports has surged to nearly 3 million TEU, which is caused by a combination of factors such as infrastructure, weather disruptions, and labor issues.

Meanwhile, the orderbook is well-stocked as carriers aim to replace less fuel-efficient vessels and compete for a larger market share.

Most large carriers have orders 30-50% of their existing fleet for the next 4-5 years. However, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have relatively fewer orders they have already completed their fleet modernization.

On the demand side, from January to October 2025, maritime demand grew by 4% year-onyear, driven by a surge in cargo volume on minor trade routes in Asia.

DHL said it is expected that global demand will continue to grow until the Chinese New Year extend throughout the year.

With the uncertainties and trade disruptions caused by U.S. tariffs, the global trade landscape is shifting and diversifying, and the overall demand is positive.

Exports from Asia, especially to the Middle East, the Indian subcontinent, and Africa, are surging.

It is expected that theopening of the Suez Canal route will further boost the demand for the Asia-Europe trade route, as the shorter transport time makes ocean shipping more attractive.

Carriers still testing the market, assessing the risk and safety of seafarers, vessels, and cargo, and will wait for a complete cessation of Houthi attacks.

Once the Suez Canal route reopens, it will initially lead to several months of repositioning, disruptions, and congestion.

DHL said that in the "-case scenario," the Suez Canal route service could only return to normal by mid-2026.

Another factor affecting maritime cargo this year is the European Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS), which will cover 100% of emissions starting in 2026.

This means that the cost of trading for freight entering and leaving Europe will increase by another 35% to 50%, making low-carbon shipping an attractive alternative