The global shipbuilding industry is currently experiencing a significant decline in newbuilding orders, primarily driven by regulatory uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. This drop is particularly pronounced in the dry bulk sector, where new vessel orders have plummeted to what UK consultancy Drewry describes as historic lows.

In a new report, Drewry attributes the decline to weak freight rates, high newbuilding prices, extended delivery times, and overall market uncertainty. Shipowners are hesitating to place new orders as they await developments in the tariff war and the U.S. Trade Representative’s plans regarding China-linked capacity and increased port fees in the U.S.

Uncertainty around future environmental regulations and the adoption of alternative fuels is also causing hesitation among shipowners when ordering new vessels.

According to Clarksons Research, global newbuilding orders in the first five months of 2025 have dropped by approximately 50% compared to the same period in 2024, even though 2024 saw the strongest order volumes since 2008. Nevertheless, shipyards continue to maintain robust forward order books.

Clarksons data shows that outside of car carriers, the most significant retreat in new orders this year has occurred in the dry bulk segment, which is the largest sector in shipping.

Overall newbuilding prices have recently declined, with Clarkson-tracked prices falling 1% since the start of the year.

Danish Ship Finance also forecasts a short-term decrease in newbuilding prices, predicting that fewer new orders and soft freight rates will reduce the number of shipyards signing contracts.

In its annual review published in late March, BRS predicted that ongoing global uncertainty and renewed pressure on the freight market would delay investment decisions. A new wave of shipbuilding expansion is expected to put downward pressure on newbuilding prices. Although the large existing order book will provide some price resistance, newbuilding prices are forecast to decline by more than 10% by 2025, depending on ship type and size.