Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at the Baltic and International Maritime Council, stated that by the end of 2024, the order volume for container ships has reached 8.3 million TEUs, setting a new record after the 7.8 million TEUs achieved at the beginning of 2023. Ships with a capacity of 8,000 TEU or more account for 92% of the total orders.

Due to the ongoing contract boom over the past four years, Chinese shipyards have greatly benefited and currently hold 72% of the 8.3 million TEU orders, while South Korean and Japanese shipyards hold 22% and 5%, respectively.

Liner operators control 79% of the order capacity, and their fleet capacity share is expected to increase in the coming years.

99% of the orders will be delivered between 2025 and 2029, with 700,000 TEUs scheduled for delivery in 2029. Between 2025 and 2028, about 1.9 million TEUs will be delivered, and the peak delivery of 2.2 million TEUs will occur in 2027.

Over the past four years, ship recycling has been limited to 166 vessels and 256,000 TEUs. Since 2020, the average age of the fleet has increased by 1.4 years. Additionally, the number of ships aged 20 years or more has increased, reaching 3.4 million TEUs, accounting for 11% of the fleet.

If all ships aged 20 years or more are recycled within the next five years, and assuming no new ship delivery contracts are signed before 2030, the fleet will grow to 35.8 million TEUs by the end of 2029.

The submarket for ships smaller than 8,000 TEUs is shrinking by 4% annually, while the submarket for ships larger than 8,000 TEUs is growing by 7% annually.

"In the next five years, 680,000 TEUs need to be recycled annually to retire all ships aged 20 years or more, but the actual recycling volume may be lower. As long as ships cannot fully return to the Red Sea, the recycling volume may remain low. Additionally, smaller ships tend to be recycled later than the average. Therefore, the fleet’s annual growth rate may exceed 3% in the next five years," Rasmussen said.