With the U.S. officially ending its "de minimis" duty-free policy for small parcels, transpacific air freight demand has sharply declined, prompting a profound shift in global freighter capacity deployment.

According to data from platform Rotate over the past 72 hours, global freighter capacity has dropped by 8% week-over-week, with transpacific widebody freighter capacity plunging 18% in just one week. Moreover, around 10% of the global freighter fleet—roughly 50 widebody aircraft—has remained inactive for three consecutive days. While part of this inactivity is due to the May Day holiday, the core factor is undoubtedly the decline in cross-border e-commerce orders caused by the U.S. policy change.

Transatlantic Air Cargo Heats Up as Transpacific Cools

While the transpacific market cools, other routes are rapidly absorbing the freed-up capacity. Capacity on Europe–North America routes rose 11% within a week, with increases also seen on routes between the Americas and from Europe to Africa. For instance, Qatar Airways has launched a new cargo route connecting Doha–Frankfurt–Atlanta, offering over 200 tons of weekly capacity with two flights per week.

Asia is also adjusting. Challenge Group has announced the launch of scheduled freighter services to Bangalore, India, supplementing its existing three weekly flights to Mumbai. DB Schenker has launched the first international cargo flight from Sylhet Airport in Bangladesh, focusing on textile exports—highlighting South Asia’s rising role in global air freight.

India: The Next Battleground for Air Cargo?

“Global manufacturing is shifting to India,” said Cargolux CEO Richard Forson. “In the future, nearly all airlines will reallocate capacity to India.” Challenge Group echoed this sentiment, calling India a fast-emerging “factory of the world” and framing its new services as a direct response to growing customer demand.

No Major Shift to Europe by Chinese E-Commerce—Yet

Despite expectations that Chinese cross-border e-commerce platforms would reroute capacity to Europe to avoid U.S. tariffs, that pivot hasn’t materialized. Rotate data shows that air cargo capacity from Asia-Pacific to Europe actually declined by 5% last week. This has sparked industry speculation about potential new regulatory moves by the EU.

Transpacific Rates Fall Amid Pressure

Even with some capacity reallocation, global air cargo rates remain under pressure. According to the TAC Index, global air freight rates fell 4.5% in the week ending May 5, down 5.7% year-over-year. Rates from China to the U.S. continue to decline, while rates to Europe have seen a mild recovery.

Still, there are contrarian moves. Logistics giant DSV announced it will launch scheduled charter flights between Chicago and Shanghai starting May 13, offering frequent two-way services for specialized cargo like temperature-sensitive goods, oversized shipments, and dangerous goods. DSV stated this new route will “enhance the connection between key U.S. industries and Asian markets.”

Summary: Air Freight Reconfiguration Underway as Route and Rate Battles Begin

With shifts in both capacity deployment and rate dynamics, the global air cargo market is entering a new phase of realignment. Amid tightening U.S. trade policies, emerging South Asian markets, and strategic route expansions, airlines, forwarders, and shippers must rethink their capacity planning and supply chain strategies to navigate increasing global uncertainty.